Keepin' The Old Farmer's Honest

THE OLD FARMER'S 2015 ALMANAC by Robert B. Thomas is the real deal, as they will be the first to tell you, so don't be fooled by their many imitators.  While it is filled with gardening wisdom, betty-crockerish recipes, and home remedies, its main claim to fame is to forecast the weather for us.  As a public service, I am here to let you know how they're doing so far, now that the data are in for November.  I use the mid Atlantic region as my exemplar.

Here is the OLD FARMER'S forecast for the Atlantic Corridor (page 197):

NOV 2014: Temp. 44 deg. (3 deg below avg.); precip 3.5" (avg.). 1-2 Rain; mild north, cool south. 3-7 Rainy north, showers south; mild. 8-11 Sunny, cold nights. 12-15 Rain, then sunny, cold. 16-22 Scattered showers, cool. 23-30 Showers and flurries, then sunny, cold. 

 According to NOAA, at Reagan National Airport, the average temperature for the month was 48 deg., which is 1 1/2 deg. below normal.  Not much of a miss.   The precipitation was 2.65 inches, approximately 1/2 inch below normal.  Almost a full inch less rain than the prediction.

Boston Logan averaged 42.5 deg. F, or 2.2 deg. below normal ( source: National Weather Service.)   Taking the two together, I would say the almanac's temperature prognostication for the region as a whole is pretty darn reasonable.

Total rainfall in Boston was 5.27 inches, an inch and a quarter above the norm.  So the almanac's guess undershoots up north, and overshoots down south.  Hmmm.  Still defensible, I would argue.

What about the period forecasts?  Well, the DC Metro area did get snow flurries on November 26, the day before Thanksgiving, so that parcel posts. Without putting you through too much unnecessary pain, and just taking the Boston data, the record is a bit hit and miss, but the ALMANAC was right about a quarter of the time, depending on your scoring methodology and how you interpret the prediction ("12-15 Rain, then sunny,..."?)

All-in-all, the ALMANAC describes the mid Atlantic's November 2014 weather reasonably well.  Maybe there's something to it.  Think?

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Email: myirrefutableopinion@gmail.com